jeudi 21 mai 2009

Inflation or Deflation?

Inflation or Deflation?

Much confusion continues to reign as to whether the world’s financial system is suffering from inflation or deflation. Given the brilliance of some of the commentators on today’s financial woes, I would think that the issue should be settled, but it is not.

The classical definition of inflation is an increase in the money supply; deflation is the opposite: a decrease in the money supply. All other things being equal (They rarely are.), inflation (an increase in the money supply) results in an increase in the general price level, deflation (a decrease in the money supply) causes a fall in the general price level.

The confusion rises from the misappropriation of the use of words inflation and deflation by persons not familiar with the classical definitions. To most news commentators and writers, and, sadly, many members of the financial world, inflation has come to mean an increase in prices, deflation a fall in prices.
Even Richard Russell, whom I consider a brilliant stock market analyst, goes with a confused concept of deflation. He writes about deflation in the stock market and deflation in the housing market, referring to falling prices. But, as Gary North has explained in a several treatises on deflation/inflation, which can be found on www.lewrockwell.com, the terms are used to indicate what is happening to the money supply. Inflation and deflation are not words to indicate which direction prices are moving.

For example, the prices of computers have been falling for years. Computers that deliver increased capability are cheaper almost by the month (albeit the rate of decline is slowing.) Yet no one writes about deflation in the computer market.
I suspect that deflation crept into financial jargon because the stock market is a “money world.” It is where money is made and lost. And, during the housing mania, houses became investments. When I was a kid, a house was a home, a place where you lived, and something that most adults wanted to get debt free as soon as possible. (There was never any debt on the house in which I grew up, a concept that has probably as dead as the dodo.)

So, when stock prices fall over extend periods, financial analysts write about deflation in the stock market, and falling home prices elicit comments about deflation in the housing market.

Getting back to the macro-view, is the world’s financial system suffering from inflation or deflation? It depends on what you mean by the definitions of inflation and deflation. (Thank you, Billy Clinton. “It depends on what the meaning of the word is is.”)

If by inflation you mean an increase in the money supply, we are definitely suffering from inflation. Central banks around the world are cranking out their currencies, but none as massively our central bank, The Federal Reserve System. The world is awash in paper currencies, or, worse yet, digital dollars that reside silica chips in computers.

However, if you define deflation as falling prices and look at stock prices and house prices, we are suffering from deflation, or, at least, deflation in two very important segments of our financial world.

What does all this mean to investors who opt for gold investing, who buy silver? Should they buy more gold? Should they lighten their positions by selling gold? This topic will be revisited on this blog, but for me it is scary to have a lot of money sitting in banks, I do not care if we are seeing falling prices in some important sectors of our economy.

Gold Stocks, US Dollar, and Crude Oil Charts.


Gold Stocks, US Dollar, and Crude Oil Charts
By admin | September 15, 2008
Submitted by Gold Stock Prophet Blog


The above chart is a weekly chart of the XAU gold stocks index. I have said in several previous posts that gold stocks needed to hold the support area outlined above for me to remain bullish on the sector.
During this past week, it appeared that the gold bulls had capitulated, and the bears would close gold stocks well below support. However, towards the end of the week, the bulls miraculously drove the price back above key support, creating the longest lower shadow I have ever seen for the XAU.
In my view this is extremely bullish action, and now, at long last, I am willing to declare that we have likely put in a bottom for gold, and gold stocks.
The next chart is a monthly chart of the US Dollar Index:




Crude oil is trading within a hair of $100 per barrel, and this number is psychologically significant. This is also the level where crude experienced a breakout, which I mentioned in this post.
I still generally do not recommend trying to pick tops and bottoms, and still feel that trading with the trend is a more profitable methodology. But if you are into picking bottoms, this may be just as good a time as any.

Investors Are Flocking to Gold ETFs

Investors Are Flocking to Gold ETFs

With uncertainty and risk aversion dominating investor psychology in the first quarter of the year, gold ETFs have benefited, increasing dramatically in the first three months of 2009.

According to the World Gold Council, investments in gold ETFs increased to $13.58 billion in the first quarter, representing more than six times the amount held in the same period during 2008 and more than five times the amount held in the fourth quarter of 2008.

As fears of a prolonged global recession intensified in February and March, investors pulled money out of equities and turned to less risky investments, such as Treasuries and gold.

Even as the market has rallied in recent months, reflecting increased investor willingness to take risks, many analysts believe that gold prices will find support from continued inflation concerns, particularly on the heels of massive stimulus packages implemented by the U.S. and other governments.

There are a variety of ETFs available offering exposure to gold, including:

• SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
• iShares COMEX Gold Trust (IAU)
• DB Gold Double Long ETN (DGP)
• DB Gold Short ETN (DGZ)

Peak Gold: The New Paradigm

Peak Gold: The New Paradigm

By now, almost everyone is familiar with the concept of “peak oil”. This notion, which has been accepted as fact by many, has two components to it.
First of all, we have new supply fundamentals which demonstrate conclusively that any increases in supply cannot be maintained due to the permanent inability of the petroleum industry to find and develop new sources for crude as fast as current reserves are depleted.

The second component of the “peak oil” model is a demand “curve” which projects large increases in demand which are totally above the upper parameters of supply. In other words, barring some currently unforeseeable miracle, we will be forced (through dramatically rising prices) to curb our demand – or else we will “fuel” (pardon the pun) even more extreme prices.

More recently, some “gold bugs” have been quietly discussing their own paradigm for the future: “peak gold”. The first component of this model already equates to the current realities of the oil market: global gold producers are unable to increase supply – despite a greater than tripling of the price of gold this decade.
The only country which has been able to substantially increase production is China.

If not for dramatic increases in Chinese gold mining, global production would be inching lower despite a tripling of the price. However, as we have also recently discovered, the Chinese government has no inclination to share this increased production with the rest of the world (see “China now has 5th largest gold reserves”).

Today, thanks to the World Gold Council, we have now been provided with the second component necessary to make the case for “peak gold”: soaring demand. The WGC just reported that 1st quarter demand for gold has risen by a stunning 38%.

As I stated in a recent commentary (“Gold demand now driven by investment...PERIOD!”), this rising demand has come entirely through investment demand, and more particularly retail investment demand – which exploded upward by nearly 400% in 2008.

A further indication of this new paradigm for the global gold market is that this HUGE increase in demand came without any support from the Indian gold market, which historically had always been the largest and most important market for gold.

Indian gold imports were virtually non-existent in the first quarter, thanks to large domestic supplies of “scrap”. Along with other factors, this has led me to speculate that India has ceased to be a driver of the global gold market (see “Is India now IRRELEVANT to the gold market?”).

Clearly, when the world's largest consumer can STOP buying gold, and yet demand has still skyrocketed by 38%, this alone is a powerful argument that the gold market will start behaving much more like the oil market: specifically, it will become much more susceptible to powerful “spikes” in the price any/every time some gold-bullish news reaches the markets.

This in turn, suggests yet more new trends in the gold market. Traditionally, Indian gold-buyers have been patient and savvy: able to do the majority of their buying when troughs in the price of gold occur. Suddenly, there is no guarantee there will EVER be another “trough” in the price of gold – at least nothing below the current, grossly-manipulated price.

Now, with their deep cultural attachment to gold, and their own supplies depleted, they may be forced to "chase" the price of gold higher - in order to meet domestic needs.
And speaking of “manipulation" these new demand numbers also strongly suggest a new paradigm of behavior for the anti-gold cabal of bankers.

Specifically, we are likely to observe genuine fear in their behavior.
If you are a player in the market, sitting with an illegal “short” position – many times larger than anything every witnessed in any other commodity market – and you now realize that the commodity you are “shorting” is prone to huge, upward gyrations in price, you must now be constantly fearful of your own annihilation.

Keep in mind that when the position of the manipulators was much stronger earlier this decade, the best they could do was to hold back the price of gold to slightly less than a quadrupling of the price. With their reserves of bullion seriously depleted, and record-demand now eating up supply sources in a ravenous manner, a logical projection of the price of gold over the next decade now obviously points to a four-digit price at or approaching $5000/oz.

If the price of gold could quadruple when the manipulators were “strong”, then a quintupling of the price – now that they are “weak” - is not unreasonable in any sense.

“Peak gold” is here. Those who have sat on the sidelines until now, paralyzed by the anti-gold propaganda of the Manipulators have one, last opportunity to purchase cheap gold

Has Gold Been Manipulated?




Has Gold Been Manipulated?

by: Hard Assets Investor May 20, 2009 | about stocks: GLD / SLV
Writing articles on precious metals can be an unending job. The time spent researching and composing the piece often seems short compared with the investment required to field questions and defend one's reasoning.
Gold, for example, seems to excite everyone's passions. Everybody's got an opinion about why the metal's where it is today or why it ought to be higher, or lower, in the future. And why not? After all, if it weren't for differences in opinions, there'd be no trading.

But let's be clear: An opinion is just a personal view; it's not a fact. When it comes to the responses to gold articles published by Hard Assets Investor (www.HardAssetsInvestor.com), there seems to be plenty more opinions than facts offered.

One of the most common beliefs held by responders is that the price of gold is being artificially suppressed. Gold, according to subscribers of the manipulation theory, would be higher-priced today if not for the efforts of a banking cabal that cuts short rallies.

But what are the facts, if any, that support this contention?
Articles written by Ted Butler are most often cited as the backup for the manipulation argument. Butler, a newsletter publisher and one-time commodity broker, posits a criminal conspiracy among large commercial interests in the silver - and by extension, the gold - market. The smoking gun Butler offers is the short interest held by a handful of banks.

According to data compiled by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission [CFTC], banks are indeed on the short side of the metals futures markets and have been for quite some time. At present, the market looks like this:



So, bank-held long positions, in the aggregate, amount to a quarter of the size of the financial institutions' short sales. That's supposed to be a smoking gun?
Butler attributes the 2008 gold sell-off to some sort of manipulative action by these banks. In one newsletter, he writes: "Every criminal act must have a motive and an opportunity to commit the crime.

By the simple process of elimination, those responsible for this crime are the concentrated commercial shorts on the COMEX. No one else fits the profile.

They had the means (through their dominant and monopolistic position), the profit motive and the skill to cause the sell-off."
Okay. Time for a lesson in capitalism. Banks are in the business of making money. There's no crime in that.

And while banks strive to earn a yield spread between borrowed and lent funds, they also have proprietary trading desks in which they deal as principals in debt securities, foreign exchange and, to one degree or another (more so for non-U.S. institutions), precious metals. Banks also execute trades as agents for their large customers.

The existence of a large bank position, short or long, does not in itself indicate manipulation. Indeed, if you looked at bank participation in other commodity contracts, you'd see many instances of lopsided positions. Take U.S. Treasury bond futures as an example. Bank short positions in T-bonds are heavier and more concentrated than those in gold:
CBT Treasury Bonds - Futures Only



Using Butler's reasoning, the Treasury market must be even more highly manipulated than gold; fewer banks with positions twice as short as those involved in metals. But where's the trail of guilty footsteps here?
More interesting still is Butler's one-sided notion of manipulation. As gold's cash and futures prices soared between October 2007 and March 2008, large speculators' net long positions grew atypically outsized.

Simply put, institutional accounts and hedge funds (the red line graphed below) jumped ahead of commercial hedgers (blue line) to lead the market to its peak above $1,000 an ounce.
Yet we heard no outcry from Butler or his followers about manipulation then. Clearly, long speculators had means and motive.

If we adopt Butler's presumptions, the run-up should also amount to prima facie evidence of criminal conspiracy.
Net Interest Of COMEX Gold Traders


Source: CFTC
Butler believes the subsequent sell-off was so severe that it must have been orchestrated. Forgive me for thinking that the standard of proof for conspiracy hasn't been met. Once again, where's the evidence?

A suspicion of funny business in the metals markets would be bolstered if gold futures sold off in isolation.

But it didn't. Gold, silver, crude oil, corn - everything - swooned in the spring and summer of 2008. There was wholesale de-leveraging in the wake of the unwinding of short dollar plays.

Most important, though, is the relationship between gold price peaks in July 2008 and February 2009 and commercial short positions. You'll note there's a direct correlation. In other words, commercial short positions peaked when gold rose in price.

So, how's that fit in with the Butler conspiracy theory?

Now, I'm a reasonable guy. I'm more than willing to look at the gold market with fresh eyes if readers can supply new facts rather than supposition and hearsay. If you've got something to say about gold's manipulation, now's the time

Gold Should More than Double in Next 6 Months

Gold Should More than Double in Next 6 Months

by: Paul Learton May 20, 2009 | about stocks: GDX / GLD
Nothing protects against inflation like gold.
Gold was, is, and always will be THE ultimate storehouse of value. Mankind was prizing this stuff during the prehistoric period, long before the concept of stocks, mutual funds, or paper money even existed.
Now, I know what you’re thinking, “gold has already risen from $250 to $900 an ounce, how much higher can it go?”


Much, MUCH higher.
No investment ever goes straight up or straight down. During the last bull market in gold, the precious metal rose 2,329% from a low of $35 in 1970 to a high of $850 in 1980. However, during that time, there was a period of 18 months in which gold fell nearly 50% (see the chart below).

As you can see, from mid-1971 to December 1974, gold rose 471%. It then fell 50%, from December ’74 to August ’76. After that, it began its next leg up, exploding 750% higher from August ’76 to January 1980.
Now, in its current bull market (2001 to March 2008), gold rose over 300% from $250 to a little over $1,000. And just like in the mid-70s, it began showing signs of weakness after its first big rally up to $1,014 in March ’08. At one point, it even fell to $700, a 30% retraction.
Granted, it wasn’t a full 50% retraction like the one that occurred from 1974-76. But we are experiencing a financial crisis. And gold is the most common catastrophe insurance.
If we were to go by the historic pattern of the gold market in the ‘70s, gold should experience upwards resistance for 19 months after its first peak today. Gold’s recent peak was $1,014 in March ’08 (roughly 14 months before the writing of this report). If this bull market parallels the last one, then gold should renew its upward momentum in a very serious way starting in October 2009. And this next leg up should be a major one (the biggest gains came during the second rally in gold’s bull market in the ‘70s).
However, judging from the Fed’s money printing, the next leg up may come even earlier.
Now, a lot of commentators have noted that gold is already trading above its 1980 high ($850 an ounce). What they fail to note is that thanks to inflation, $1 in the ‘70s is worth a LOT MORE than a $1 today.

For gold to hit a new all time high adjusted for inflation, it would have to clear at least $2,193 per ounce. If you go by 1970 dollars (when gold started its last bull market) it’d have to hit $4,666 per ounce.
Bottom line: gold is nowhere near a peak adjusted for inflation. And if history is any guide, we should begin another MAJOR bull rally for gold sometime in the late summer/ early autumn of this year.
You should consider taking advantage of this to load up now.
Disclosure: I own gold and the gold ETF (GLD)

American Buffalo Gold Coin


The Buffalo Gold coins, proof and bullion, are the first 24k gold coins to be minted by the U.S. Government. Authorized by congress in 2005 and first minted in June 2006, the gold in the coins is mined from U.S. sources.

The U.S. Government offered the Buffalo Gold coin as an alternative for those collectors who prefer 24k gold coins (.9999 pure gold) and previously purchased the Vienna Philharmonic gold coin or the Maple Leaf gold coin. The Buffalo gold coin differs from the American Eagle Gold coin in that the Eagle gold coins are 22k gold.


American Buffalo Gold Coin Design


Based upon an Indian Head Nickel (also known as the buffalo nickel) designed by James Earle Fraser, the coin features a Native American in profile on the obverse (heads) and an American buffalo (bison) on the reverse (tails). The American Buffalo Gold coin is based upon Fraser's design and features the mound visible under the buffalo minted in 1913 (type I buffalo nickel). Fraser's design was modified by Charles Barber and became known as type 2 buffalo nickel. The type 2 buffalo nickel does not feature the mound. Read about more of the Buffalo Gold Coin history here.



American Buffalo Gold Coin Editions and Mintage

The American Buffalo Gold Coin has two editions, a proof and bullion edition. Though both are minted at West Point, the proof differs in that it is intended to be a collector's coin with a softly frosted and highly detailed image that seems to 'float.' This coin typically sells at a premium over the bullion coin, as the coin is manually fed into the special die and struck multiple times.

The bullion edition is intended as an investment vehicle. It's price fluctuates with the price of gold. It is available through coin dealers and typically sells at 4-5% above the price of gold. Click buffalo gold coin editions to learn more.

American Buffalo Gold Coin Specifications

Specifications of the American Buffalo Gold Coin

-- Content: 1.0000 Troy Ounce 24k gold of U.S. sourced gold
-- Weight: 1.0001 Troy Ounce (31.08 grams)
-- Diameter: 1.287 inches (32.70 mm)
-- Thickness: 0.116 inches (2.95 mm)
-- Edge: Reeded

AMERICAN EAGLE GOLD COINS WWW.EAGLEGOLDCOINS.NET

AMERICAN EAGLE PLATINUM WWW.AMERICANEAGLEPLATINUMCOINS.COM

AMERICAN EAGLE SILVER COINS WWW.AMERICANEAGLESILVERCOINS.NET

KRUGERRAND GOLD COINS WWW.KRUGERRANDGOLDCOINS.NET

MAPLE LEAF GOLD COINS WWW.MAPLELEAFGOLDCOINS.NET
Gold coin images and specifications:

American Buffalo gold bullion

Australian Kangaroo gold bullion

Austrian Philharmonic gold bullion

Canadian Maple Leaf gold bullion

South African Krugerrand gold bullion

United States Eagle gold bullion

Various Bullion Gold Bars



Gold coins available in ounce and fractional sizes (1/10, 1/4, 1/2)
Gold bars available in standard sizes. (100 oz, kilo - 32.15 oz, 10 oz, 1 oz)

Low premium, historic European and South American Gold Coins
These smaller historical coins provide all the protections common to bullion coins and track the gold price, but because they are categorized as collector items, they uniquely offer an additional layer of protection for the privacy oriented investor. With the net gold content in the one-fifth to one-quarter ounce range, the pricing is comparable to similarly-sized contemporary gold bullion coins. Pictured above are seven of the highest volume pre-1933 European gold coins. From left to right, top: French Rooster, French Angel, Swiss Helvetia, Belgian Leopold. From left to right, bottom: British Sovereign, Dutch Guilder, German 20 Mark.
Popular gold coin images and specs:

Argentina (Argentino)

Belgium 20 francs (Leopold)

France 20 francs (Napoleon III)

France 20 francs (Angel)

France 20 francs (Rooster)

Germany 20 marks (Wilhelm II)

Great Britain Sovereign (Victoria)

Great Britain Sovereign (Kings)

Italy 20 lira (Umberto)

Netherlands 10 Guilders (King)

Netherlands 10 Guilders (Queen)

Switzerland 20 francs (Confederatio)

Switzerland 20 francs (Helvetia)


Uruguay (5 pesos)

Note: From time to time our sources secure special caches and allotments of unusual and scarcer European pre-1933 gold coins at favorable premiums. These usually go quickly to our waiting list. Please let your account representative know if you have an interest in acquiring scarcer issues of historic European gold coins as they become available. We would be happy to include you in our email-based Monthly Buyers' Group.


Historic United States $20 Gold Coins
Usually purchased in bulk the way investors purchase the contemporary bullion coins or the pre-1933 European coins, these items offer the protection of a collectors' item but are priced reasonably over the gold content. U.S. $20 gold pieces find a consistently strong market with U.S. based investors who prefer them for their beauty and familiarity.
Gold coin images and specifications:

United States $20 (Liberty)

United States $20 (St. Gaudens)

Building Your Gold Portfolio

Portfolio diversification is the hallmark of the prudent investor. For millions worldwide, sensible diversification in the overall portfolio includes gold ownership. It is a timeless art that need be applied to modern times. To help you meet that essential need, we offer the full range of gold coin and bullion products. We offer four primary groupings of gold items:

1. Contemporary gold bullion coins and bars
2. Low-premium, historic European and S.American gold coins
3. Low-premium, historic U.S. gold coins
4. Graded historic U.S. $20 gold pieces

How you structure your portfolio depends upon your personal financial needs and goals, and should be done in concert with one of our experienced and knowledgeable client representatives. We are happy to work with you in structuring your portfolio to weather the uncertainties ahead and maximize your return. Below you will find listed various gold coin links which will take you to photos and specifications of each item.

How to Buy Gold in Five Easy Steps
Though the task for the newcomer may seem daunting and a bit confusing, a portfolio diversification into gold is really a very simple process that some tend to over-complicate. Having a good sense of what you want gold to accomplish for you is the first hurdle. From there it breaks down to Five Easy Steps: [or, see How to buy -- Europe]


1. Familiarize yourself with our selection of gold coins and bullion.

2. Call our Trading Desk for intra-day gold prices and portfolio consultation.

FREE SHIPPING AVAILABLE on most orders (excludes bullion-only and international orders) Ask for details!

3. Lock in your order at current prices over the phone.

4. Remit payment.

5. Sit back and relax while we fulfill your order.

It's that easy!

In over 30 years of assisting gold clientele on orders from hundreds of dollars to hundreds of thousands of dollars with thousands of clients located from Los Angeles to London, we have never failed to honor an agreed upon price or to deliver metal as ordered. Please see our investor Testimonials as well as our flawless record with the Better Business Bureau.

Our experienced account representatives are very well-versed in the four product categories and the role each plays in the overall gold portfolio. It only takes a few minutes over the phone to zero-in on what would likely work best for you. Some contact us already knowing what they want to include in their portfolio. If you are in that position, we will simply skip the preliminaries and go directly to pricing and locking-in your acquisition.

In either case, we welcome your inquiry.


Gold bullion coins -- see also our closing gold bullion prices, and LIVE price quotes pages.


Liquid, portable, beautiful, versatile -- gold bullion and bullion coins are the standard of wealth among international investors. These contemporary manufacture items track the gold price and sell at reasonable premiums over the daily spot quotation on the gold market. Pictured above are the four principally traded, high-volume gold bullion coins. (From left to right: Austrian Philharmonic, American Eagle, Canadian Maple Leaf, South African Krugerrand)